Mumbai, June 15, 2025 – In India, gold price have skyrocketed, surpassing ₹1 lakh per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) amidst rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East region. The Israel-Iran war has driven safe-haven demand for gold, which has rocketed to historic highs of ₹1,00,403 per 10 grams, with some analysts hinting it could potentially climb to ₹1.05 lakh if the war escalates further. This article will examine the reasons behind the increasing gold prices, analyst expectations, and what investors can monitor in this volatility.
Why Gold Prices Are Experiencing an Upsurge
With Israel launching airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the temperature has been turning up regarding the potential for a wider and perhaps regional conflict. According to various posts on X and reports circulating regarding the markets, the demands for safe-haven assets like gold and silver remain hot while uncertainty reigns overall in the markets. Adding to demand has been the continual weakness of the INR against a strong US dollar which is making dates involving gold a stronger hedge against economic and geopolitical maelstrom.
On June 13, 2025, MCX gold increased 1.94% to ₹1,00,300 per 10 grams as well as silver increasing 0.74% to ₹1,06,670 on the kilogram. “The Israel-Iran conflict, and a strong US dollar are driving this move, which is unprecedented,” said Anuj Gupta, Head of commodity Research for HDFC Securities. “If tensions worsen we could see gold hit ₹1.05 lakh per 10 grams on MCX in the near term,” echoed recent market commentary.
Expectations: ₹1.05 Lakh as Gold Price
Market participants have been monitoring the Israel-Iran conflict. The situation has disrupted markets worldwide. According to a report published by LiveMint, experts believe any escalation in hostilities might see gold prices reach ₹1.05 lakh per 10 grams on MCX in a matter of weeks. This forecast is bolstered by rising crude prices which jumped 6% due to elevated levels of supply risk with respect to growing tensions in the Middle East.
“Geopolitical risks are a driving factor for gold at the moment,” said Priya Sharma, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “The situation with Israel and Iran developing into full cost war combined with INR depreciation and global inflationary pressures make gold a strong investment. We expect prices to test ₹1.05 lakh if the situation deteriorates.”
The analysts also expect to see silver gain momentum. They forecast silver reaching ₹1.10 lakh per kilogram if the conflict escalates. Investment activity in precious metals is likely to increase as a result of this particular conflict and wider commodity concerns.
Factors Fueling Gold Price Surge
There are numerous factors pushing higher gold prices currently:
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: The Israel-Iran conflict has in effect ambiguously raised fears of a broader Middle East conflict. Buying demand for gold has been solid from safe-haven buyers in recent weeks, which is a direct result of the troubled geopolitical climate.
- International rupee weakness: The INR has fallen to record low levels against the US Dollar, making import gold considerably more expensive. As a result, gold prices domestically have gone higher.
- Global Market Volatility: With uncertainty in global equity markets and rising crude oil prices, gold has once again become an attractive investment as a safe haven asset.
- Seasonal demand in India: With the wedding season in India and the festive season approaching, it is expected that domestic buying of gold jewellery will provide support to the gold price.
What Investors Should Know
What does the gold price increase means for investors? There are equal part opportunities and risks for investors. Although gold is normally a safe bet in crises, experts warn of volatility moving higher if the Israel-Iran conflict settles down or if global markets stabilizing . “Diversify your portfolio and don’t chase the rally blindly.” said Rohan Mehta, a commodities strategist with ICICI Securities. “The best option is to have about 10-15% of the portfolio in gold to hedge against risks.”
Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and sovereign gold bonds are becoming popular as viable to make gold accessible and appealing to investors.
Global Context and Market Sentiment
The global gold market is also exhibiting a positive sentiment. Spot gold prices are now trading above $2,600 per ounce due to the geopolitics surrounding issues and safety in the markets. Recent posts on X include investor interests in safety and possible price reversal with hashtags also trending such as #GoldPrice, #MCXGold, and #SafeHaven. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have rallied with a larger spike of 6% in prices at the beginning of October due to supply disruptions in the Middle East, which will lead to inflationary pressures which has underpinned the sentiment that is transferrable to demand for gold.
What Next? Could Gold trend toward ₹1.05 Lakh?
It’s safe to say that given the Israel-Iran conflict will not have a simple or quick resolution, market watcher’s views are cautiously optimistic for near-term gold prospects. “If we see escalation or protracted uncertainty, we could see the ₹1.05 lakh level possible,” stated Gupta. On the other hand, if there is a ceasefire or diplomatic resolution, one could expect a capped rally and normal price correction.
For the moment; gold will be loved as a preserver of wealth amidst uncertainty. It is advisable have followers and stakeholders stay vigilant to monitor the market for domestic and international developments and contact their financial advisors as necessary in order to make prudent and savvy portfolios.
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