The India-Pakistan Air Clash: A Prelude to the Rafale-J-10C Rivalry
In May 2025, Kashmir was the unlikely theater of a high-profile aerial engagement between the Indian Air Force (IAF) and Pakistan Air Force (PAF), marking an important step in the development of modern air combat. Pakistan claimed its Chengdu J-10C fighter jets, armed with PL-15 beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles, shot down several Indian aircraft, including at least one Dassault Rafale, a 4.5-generation multirole fighter. Despite the Indian Government not officially accepting losses, Reuters and even a French intelligence official relative to CNN reported at least one Rafale was shot down and debris associated with French-made jets were reported from the Indian-controlled sector of Kashmir.
All of this inevitably puts the Rafale and the J-10C in the global spotlight and generates significant interest in the potential Rafale vs. J-10C duel as these jets head towards an indirect showdown with Indonesia milling over purchasing more Rafales to potentially Chinese J-10Cs. This article will explore the current capabilities of the respective jets, recent developments, and whether the French Rafale can put the Chinese J-10Cs in the rearview mirror soon.
Rafale vs. J-10C: A Technical Comparison
Rafale vs. J-10C: A Technical Comparison
Dassault Rafale (France)
Weaknesses: Shorter missile range compared to the J-10C’s PL-15 and higher operational costs.
Type: 4.5-generation multirole fighter
Manufacturer: Dassault Aviation
Key Features:
Radar: Thales RBE2 AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar, offering superior target detection and tracking.
Weapons: Equipped with Meteor (up to 100-120 km range) and MICA missiles, SCALP cruise missiles, and precision-guided munitions.
Avionics: Advanced sensor fusion, electronic warfare suite, and SPECTRA self-protection system.
Performance: Twin-engine, delta-wing design, top speed of Mach 1.8, and a combat radius of ~1,000 km.
Cost: Approximately $285 million per unit (varies by configuration).
Strengths: Versatile for air-to-air and air-to-ground missions, stealth-like features, and robust electronic countermeasures.
Chengdu J-10C (China)
- Type: 4.5-generation multirole fighter
- Manufacturer: Chengdu Aircraft Corporation
- Key Features:
- Radar: Advanced AESA radar, optimized for air combat, with strong target acquisition capabilities.
- Weapons: PL-15E missile (export version, ~145 km range), PL-10 short-range missiles, and precision-guided bombs.
- Avionics: Integrated datalink systems for network-centric warfare, supported by Chinese early-warning aircraft like the ZDK-03.
- Performance: Single-engine, canard-delta design, top speed of Mach 1.8, and a combat radius of ~1,250 km.
- Cost: Approximately $70 million per unit (export version, J-10CE).
- Strengths: Cost-effective, long-range PL-15E missile, and integration with China’s ecosystem-centric warfare doctrine.
- Weaknesses: Single-engine design may limit survivability, and export versions have slightly reduced capabilities.
The 2025 India-Pakistan Clash: What Happened?
In Operation Sindoor (May 7-10, 2025), India conducted strikes on alleged terror camps in Pakistan with Rafale, MiG-29, and Su-30 fighter jets.
Pakistan sent J-10C and JF-17 fighters, claiming they downed five Indian aircraft (three Rafales) using Chinese PL-15 missiles. Pakistan’s Government Authority’s Minister Ishaq Dar and Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmed focused on emphasizing the J-10C’s superiority because of BVR, ground radar, and ZDK-03 early-warning integration and output.
The Following points summarize the claims made during the incident:
Pakistan’s Claim – The PAF claimed to have shot down three Rafales, one MiG-29, and one Su-30 and provided electronic signatures and reports of the crash locations. A J-10C allegedly produced the “longest kill” at a recorded 182 km with the PL-15.
India’s Response – India did not confirm or deny any losses and stated they were in the process of “neutralizing” the Pakistani strikes. Local press in Kashmir indicated that three jets crashed on Indian territory; and, one of the jets was confirmed to be a Rafale by a French intelligence officer.
Independent Analysis – Analysts (such as Michael Dahm from Mitchell Institute) stated that Pakistan effectively integrated itsNkill chainN, that included ground radars, J-10C jets, and early warning systems, into one effective capability that outpaced the performance of individual jets., Chinese analysts and media largely celebrated the successful combat debut of the J-10C jets.
The Next Showdown: Indonesia’s Defense Dilemma
The India-Pakistan conflict has repercussions that extend to the Southeast Asia and Indonesia context where it is re-evaluating its $8.1 billion purchase of 42 Rafale jets with respect to Pakistan’s assertions. China has offered the J-10C as a more affordable option and is touting it as part of a commercial and strategic “showdown” rather than a combat encounter.
Indonesia’s Context: Indonesia already operates Rafales, and is considering a repeat order, with a strong incentive to take the J-10C as an alternative – particularly given Pakistan’s claimed success. Combined with the J-10C’s lower cost and proven combat history, the J-10C is enticing, but the Rafale’s multirole options seem more palatable to Indonesia’s defense requirements.
Implications: Indonesia’s choice could have consequences for the export potential of both platforms. If the J-10C is successful, it will reinforce China’s arms export market; if the Rafale is supported, it validates Dassault’s credibility despite the Kashmir situation.
Can the Rafale Outdo the J-10C?
Evaluating whether the French Rafale or the Chinese J-10C is ‘better’ is open to several considerations:
- Technological Edge:
- Rafale: The strengths of the Rafale include its multirole capabilities, advanced sensor fusion, and sophisticated electronic warfare capabilities through SPECTRA capable of jamming enemy radars. The Meteor missile on the Rafale, though a little shorter in range than the PL-15, is highly effective for beyond visual range (BVR) combat.
- J-10C: The J-10C was certainly built as an air superiority fighter, and the PL-15E missile provides a range advantage. Whether the AESA is better, or equivalent is unclear. While Pakistan was successful in a relative short period of time, this would suggest that they were able to employ support systems including early-warning aircraft.
- Tactics and Training:
- Pakistan’s improved performance and number of successful kills in 2025 could be attributed to improved tactics developed by joint exercises with U.S. and Chinese military assets, and utilizing a simpler and more consolidated kill chain as a result of having networked assets.
- The Indian Air Force has a far more diverse aircraft fleet including 14 jet types from five countries which made it infinitely more complicated to integrate the data than Pakistan’s standard Chinese-built airframes which tended to have limited capability to define what jointly it could do if limited to a very specific context.
- Combat Context:
- The Kashmir clash certainly favoured BVR engagements where Pakistan had advantages in terms of range provided by the J-10C’s PL-15 and the situational awareness, especially whether they could take down the opponent prior to the opponent realising that they were the target. The Rafale chances would be enhanced with dog’s fighting ideally involved in the same context with electronic warfare against the PL-15 and while it might be weaker in distance depending on how the strike was executed versus BVR combat scenario.
- Of course, analyst Justin Bronk who was associated with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), noted that just because the J-10C notched kills, does not mean it is better as factors depend on the performance of pilot training, mission planning, and the support systems available.
- Indonesia’s Scenario:
- With Indonesia, the Rafale’s multirole capabilities are better suited for their maritime and territorial defense requirements, while the J-10Cs affordability and air to air focus, fit in with Indonesian strategy on combating costs. Decisions may well hinge on strategic relationships (France vs China) rather than on pure capability.
Latest Updates and Global Impact
- China’s Arms Image: The J-10C’s apparent performance will improve China’s arms export opportunities, as Egypt is considering the J-10C with its fleets of Rafale and MiG-29s. It also had a considerable effect on Chengdu Aircraft Corporation’s stock prices, with shares rising 40% after the fighting started.
- India’s Reactions: The IAF is looking at next-generation options for increasing its fleets and looking at alternatives like the U.S. F-21 or the Su-57 from Russia, to diversify its weapons options and highlight potential performance concerns with the Rafale.
- Chinese Propaganda: Chinese state media, such as a documentary on the J-10 from CCTV, and jingoistic posts on X, have already seized holding of the clashes to promote the capability of the J-10C, with some of them whimsically alluding to whether the J-10C has an edge over Taiwan’s defensive systems.
- Western Concerns: The U.S. and NATO are assessing the performance of the J-10C, not only for its employment on Chinese sorties over Taiwan or across the SCS but also because the conflict is seen as a proxy test of Chinese arms versus western arms.
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